Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Catalysts Energize Energy Transfer

Few investment categories offer the same attractive combination of present yield with growth potential as does well-positioned MLPs, says Igor Greenwald of MLP Profits.

Many pipeline operators have a huge growth opportunity in front of them. Advances in drilling techniques have unlocked the energy potential of new resource basins. And many of these are in desperate need of new pipes to process and transport the swelling streams of oil and gas they're producing.

The domestic bounty is rapidly transforming America into a low-cost producer and exporter of processed fuel.

The financial incentives now in place will assure rising export volumes for the foreseeable future and in turn require huge infrastructure investments, such as are needed, for example, to liquefy natural gas or to crack condensate into naphtha.

These are not trends that will reverse simply because the 10-year yield has rebounded to 2.5%. These are projects that will provide solid returns years into the future, for the partnerships that pick the right opportunities and execute well.

Like any investment, MLPs come with many hazards. The focus on yield can blind investors to excessive borrowing or other unsustainable business strategies that can maintain the appearance of profitable growth for a time.

Better to buy based on well-defined business opportunities and to know that if these are grasped, the distribution growth will follow. There are no low-risk 10% yields, but plenty reasonably secure 5% ones that could grow over time.

All of this is an argument in favor of the most financially stable MLPs with the brightest growth prospects, and thankfully, there are still some that are fairly valued. Many have weathered numerous booms and busts while vastly outperforming the stock market. They'll be around, and building the pipelines we badly need, long after interest rates have marched much higher.

Meanwhile, incentive distribution rights (IDRs) can boost the income stream of a general partner over time, to the corresponding detriment of limited partners. IDRs are especially lucrative after a long period of steady growth, which is exactly what's taken place among MLPs in the five years since the financial crisis hit.

One upshot was our new recommendation of Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) as a general partner poised to capitalize on lucrative IDR streams from several subsidiary partnerships.

ETE is the general partner of Energy Transfer Partners LP (ETP), the fourth-largest MLP by market value, and operator of natural gas gathering and transportation pipelines with a combined length of 47,000 miles.

ETE is also the general partner of another pipeline operator, Regency Energy Partners (RGP).

And ETP is itself a general partner of another MLP, Sunoco Logistics SXL. All of these MLPs owe incentive distribution rights, directly or indirectly, to ETE.

During its recent acquisition spree, ETE agreed to forego IDR payments from some of the businesses taken over by its affiliates, moves that will cost it $245 million next year, but less thereafter with the prospect of a big spur to growth, once these waivers expire in a couple of years.

Barclays recently estimated that after the waivers ETE's income stream could grow at a 15% annually compounded rate for five years, thanks to subsidiary IDRs.

So today's relatively modest 4.2% yield could be markedly higher in a few years without any change in the unit price.

ETE is a stable, financially secure MLP, with visible growth catalysts and the tailwind of affiliated IDRs. With units trading right around our initial price target, we're raising it to continue taking advantage of this opportunity. Buy ETE below $69.

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Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Why Polaris Is Poised to Keep Motoring

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, all-terrain vehicle maker Polaris Industries (NYSE: PII  ) has earned a respected four-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Polaris and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

Polaris facts

Headquarters (founded)

Medina, Minn. (1987)

Market Cap

$6.7 billion

Industry

Leisure products

Trailing-12-Month Revenue

$3.3 billion

Management

Chairman/CEO Scott Wine

President/COO Bennett Morgan

Return on Equity (average, past three years)

53.5%

Cash/Debt

$380.8 million / $106.4 million

Dividend Yield

1.8%

Competitors

Arctic Cat

Harley-Davidson

Honda Motor

Sources: S&P Capital IQ and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 90% of the 358 members who have rated Polaris believe the stock will outperform the S&P 500 going forward.   

Just last week, one of those Fools, hughesgcc, brought a potent source of Polaris' growth to our community's attention:

Polaris is a solid company who has cracked the code on adventure sports in both design and workmanship. They have steadily risen to a $95+ share price after hard work and development of their products. They purchased the Indian Motorcycle name in 2011 and have used their corporate knowledge (they built Victory Motorcycles brand from the ground up), and their endless capital to resurrect the old Indian Chief with 21st century engineering. ... I expect the market to be late to the party on this, they will, no doubt, seize a portion of the [Harley-Davidson] market in the next 5 years and force Harley to innovate.

If you want market-thumping returns, you need to put together the best portfolio you can. Of course, despite a strong four-star rating, Polaris may not be your top choice.

With the American markets reaching new highs, investors and pundits alike are skeptical about future growth. They shouldn't be. Many global regions are still stuck in neutral, and their resurgence could result in windfall profits for select companies. A recent Motley Fool report, "3 Strong Buys for a Global Economic Recovery," outlines three companies that could take off when the global economy gains steam. Click here to read the full report!

Monday, July 29, 2013

"The Wolverine" Tops Weekend Box Office

LOS ANGELES (AP) -- The Wolverine slashed monsters and minions to debut atop the weekend box office.

The Fox film featuring Hugh Jackman's sixth turn as the claw-wielding superhero opened with $55 million in North America, according to studio estimates Sunday.

Last weekend's top movie, Warner Bros.' low-budget horror The Conjuring, slipped to second place, adding another $22.1 million to its take.

Despicable Me 2 was in third with $16 million. The Universal animated sequel, with its cast of cute, yellow minions, has made more than $600 million worldwide since it came out four weeks ago.

The Wolverine, which is set in Japan and features an international cast, earned another $86.1 million overseas. The film's opening-week take surpassed the $120 million it cost to make, said Chris Aronson, Fox's head of domestic distribution.

"It's a huge opening for the clawed one," he said. "It played equally well from Maine to Maui."

Another Fox film, the animated snail-racing tale Turbo, was in fourth place with $13.3 million. Adam Sandler's Grown Ups 2 followed with $11.5 million.

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Woody Allen's latest, Blue Jasmine, enjoyed a stellar opening of its own, though on a much smaller scale. Starring Cate Blanchett, the film opened in just six theaters but still collected $612,767.

"It's one of the biggest opening per-theater averages ever for a non-animated film," said Paul Dergarabedian of box-office tracker Hollywood.com.

Ticket sales this weekend were up almost 30% over the same weekend last summer, he said.

"It was a good weekend to be a moviegoer because the choices just got a lot more interesting," Dergarabedian said, noting a mix that includes animated, independent and big-budget action offerings.

Fruitvale Station, the Sundance winner already generating Oscar buzz, expanded to theaters across the country and edged its way into the top 10, contributing to a summer box office that is up more than 10% over last year.

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Sunday, July 28, 2013

Qualcomm: Still More Room To Run

In a sense, I really hate this market. Why? Everything seems to be appreciating on a pretty consistent basis, making it tough to buy in when it's time to deploy some capital. Now, while I am completely cognizant of the fact that the printing presses at the Fed are working overtime to ensure that this liquidity limbo continues for a good while longer, it's becoming ever-so-frustrating to get good deals on quality companies. Qualcomm (QCOM), a company that I've been a huge fan of for quite some time, finally gave me a chance to buy it on-sale, and I was pounding the table both on my StockTalks and in articles to buy this under $63. I still think there's still quite a bit more room to run.

The Drop Was Temporary

After the "scary" drop from $66 to $61.38 or so, the sentiment briefly turned negative on the name. When you run into these kinds of drops, just head on over to StockTwits, and you'll see the same "twits" parroted over and over again. In Qualcomm's case, they went something like:

<Technical Analysis Mumbo Jumbo> THIS SEES $53!Broadcom (BRCM) will eat Qualcomm's lunch, Qualcomm going below $60!They missed estimates! What a lousy company!

And it went on and on. Smart money, while perhaps slightly perturbed by the drop in QCT operating margins, recognized that the QTL profit stream was still great, and further recognized that the company had now raised full year guidance twice...precisely due to QCT market share leadership. Just because Qualcomm missed the overly-optimistic analyst estimates doesn't mean that the shares deserved that kind of whack for more than a week or two.

I'm confident that as we get into the back half of the year, Qualcomm will continue to perform quite admirably as I don't see any real negative catalysts (that aren't macro) on the horizon. The firm is taking market share in apps processors, it's shipping modems like crazy, and it's collecting profits from every single 3G/4G device sold. It's a utility coupled with a nicely growing semicon! ductor stock. What's not to like?

Dividend Growth Story Will Get More Important

As I've said before, Qualcomm is an interesting dividend growth story now. The payout ratio is still quite low at about 37% of GAAP EPS, and given that this is not a capital intensive business, I see no reason why the payout ratio can't be improved significantly, especially in light of the fact that Qualcomm isn't too aggressive on spending FCF on buybacks. I expect Qualcomm to pull an "Intel", so to speak, and have several years of very consistent dividend increases that should make yield on shares purchased at these levels quite attractive (although the 2.2% or so that shares currently yield isn't bad).

Broad Market Lifts All Boats

Remember how I complained that there aren't enough good deals on the market today? Well, this means that when the money keeps pouring in, the laggards will get some love. And, unfortunately, despite a nice run in 2012 from its $53 low, Qualcomm has been an underperformer in 2013:

QCOM Chart

QCOM data by YCharts

Not only do I believe that semiconductors/tech will start to get some loving as investors begin to rotate out of overachievers such as consumer staples, but I believe that "best of breed" stocks that have been down - but not out - will outperform by an even larger degree. Why? People are going to put all of their money somewhere, and it might as well be in a rock solid company that isn't busting through new all-time highs (yet).

Conclusion

On a pullback, Qualcomm is definitely intriguing. While I do have some concerns about what the apps processor/modem competitive landscape will look like a year from now with Intel, Nvidia (NVDA), and Broadcom leading a valiant charge (I like all three of these companies a lot) investors can rest assured that Qualcomm will still be a force to be reckoned with, especially as its fortun! es are mu! ch more levered to broad cellular device shipments than to particular apps processor/modem design wins.

Disclosure: I am long QCOM, INTC, NVDA. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. (More...)