Thursday, February 20, 2014

HP Beats on Revenue, Earnings, Sees PC Refresh

Hot Financial Companies To Own In Right Now

This story has been updated from 5:48 PM EST with additoinal conference call comments on PC sales and IBM, as well as the company's latest share price data.

NEW YORK (TheStreet) - HP (HPQ) blew past Wall Street's top and bottom line estimate in its first-quarter results on Thursday and narrowed its full-year guidance. Speaking during the earnings conference call, HP CEO Meg Whitman highlighted a "long overdue" PC refresh and opportunities to gain share from rival IBM.

The PC maker, which is in the throes of a massive corporate overhaul, reported sales of $28.2 billion, down slightly from $28.4 billion in the same period last year. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters were looking for sales of $27.191 billion.

Excluding items, HP earned 90 cents a share, a significant hike from 82 cents a share in the prior year's quarter and above Wall Street's forecast of 84 cents a share.

"HP is in a stronger position today than we've been in quite some time," said Whitman, in a statement. "The progress we're making is reflected in growth across several parts of our portfolio, the growing strength of our balance sheet, and the strong support we're receiving from customers and channel partners. Innovation is igniting our comeback, and at a time when many of our competitors are confronting new challenges, two years of turnaround work is setting us up for an exciting future." HP's non-GAAP operating margin was 8.5%, up from 7.9% in the year-ago quarter, but down sequentially from 9% in the fourth quarter. For the second quarter, HP expects earnings between 85 cents and 89 cents a share, at the low end of Wall Street's 89 cents estimate. For fiscal 2014, the Palo Alto, Calif.-based firm predicts earnings between $3.60 and $3.75 a share, narrower than its previous guidance of $3.55 to $3.75. Analysts are looking for fiscal year earnings of $3.67 a share. Revenue from the company's Personal Systems group was up 4% year over year, while its printing revenue slipped 2% over the same period. Enterprise Group revenue was up 1%, with Enterprise Services and Software down, respectively, 7% and 4%. HP Financial Services revenue was down 9%.

Speaking during the earnings call, Whitman noted an improvement in the PC market. "Overall, the PC market contraction is slowing, and we see signs of stabilization, particularly in the commercial segment," she said.

The CEO singled out HP's Personal Systems Group as one of the first quarter's highlights. "What most people will be surprised about on this earnings call will be how well PSG did," she said. Whitman pointed, in particular, to "a tailwind" in users' migration from XP to the latest versions of Windows, and a "long overdue" PC refresh. Employees, according to the HP chief, are asking not only for the latest tablets, but also new PCs.

Whitman, however, was unwilling to predict whether the positive trend will continue throughout the year. "It's hard to call it, this has been, over the last few years, a pretty volatile market," she said, in response to an analyst's question. "I think's it's too early to call."

Later in the conference call, Whitman was asked about rival IBM's (IBM) recent decision to sell its low-end x86 server business to Lenovo. "It does create an opportunity for us," she said. "I think that we have a near-term opportunity here to gain share in our server business - we're all over it, we're all over it with our server partners."

HP's free cash flow, a key metric for dividend payments and share repurchases, was $2.4 billion during the first quarter, down from $3 billion in the same period last year, but up from $2.1 billion in the prior quarter.

On the conference call, HP CFO Cathie Lesjak reiterated the company's commitment to return at least 50% of free cash flow to investors in the form of dividends and share repurchases.
HP ended the quarter wi! th $16.4 billion in gross cash. Shares of HP gained 0.93% to reach $30.47 in extended trading. --Written by James Rogers in New York. Follow @jamesjrogers >Contact by Email.During the conference call, CEO Meg Whitman highlighted a "long overdue" PC refresh and opportunities to gain share from IBM.

Stock quotes in this article: HPQ, IBM 

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Morgan Stanley Plays New Role in Facebook's $16B WhatsApp Deal

NEW YORK (TheStreet) - Morgan Stanley (MS) was pilloried for its role in running Facebook's (FB) May 2012 initial public stock offering, which sold $16 billion shares in the social network at a valuation of about $100 billion. Now, the investment bank has another $16 billion deal involving Facebook; the company's acquisition of messaging application WhatsApp, announced on Wednesday.

This time, however, Morgan Stanley is on the other side of the table.

The investment bank advised WhatsApp on its sale to Facebook in the $16 billion deal, which will be paid with $4 billion in cash and $12 billion in Facebook stock at an exchange ratio of $65.2650 a share. Additionally, the deal will give WhatsApp's founders and employees $3 billion in restricted stock units that will vest over four years subsequent to closing of the acquisition.

At Wednesday closing share prices, the deal would dilute Facebook investors by less than 8% when counting the stock component of the deal and restricted stock units. The deal will also carry a $2 billion breakup fee, split between $1 billion in cash and $1 billion in stock. Wednesday's merger, if completed, would significantly boost Facebook's presence in mobile messaging, helping it to compete with messaging apps on Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) handsets and a new breed of messaging-based social networks like Snapchat. Facebook's existing Messenger app will remain independent, the company said.

Currently, over 450 million people use WhatsApp each month, with 70% of those users active on a given day. Facebook said the combination will help accelerate growth and user engagement across both companies. "WhatsApp is on a path to connect 1 billion people. The services that reach that milestone are all incredibly valuable," Mark Zuckerberg, founder and CEO of Facebook said in a press release. Zuckerberg is a controlling shareholder of Facebook's voting shares, meaning that the deal has virtually no likelihood of being rejected by shareholders. Facebook was advised by Allen & Company and law firm Weil, Gotshal & Manges. In its 2012 purchase of Instagram, Facebook didn't hire outside advisors.

Freeman Consulting Services calculated in a preliminary estimate that WhatsApp advisors could earn between $35 million-to-$45 million, while Facebook advisors would earn between $32 million-to-$41 million in fees. "WhatsApp's extremely high user engagement and rapid growth are driven by the simple, powerful and instantaneous messaging capabilities we provide. We're excited and honored to partner with Mark and Facebook as we continue to bring our product to more people around the world," Jan Koum, WhatsApp co-founder and CEO, said in a statement. Prior to Facebook's IPO, the company bought photo-sharing app Instagram for $1 billion in a deal that some skeptics called overvalued at the time. Instagram, however, has been instrumental in increasing photo-sharing on Facebook and driving the company's mobile engagement. Menlo Park, Calif.-based Facebook said that its acquisition of WhatsApp would likely mirror the company's purchase of Instagram in execution. As with Instagram, WhatsApp's brand will be maintained. The company's core messaging product will continue to operate independently from Facebook's existing Messenger app, Facebook said. WhatsApp founder Jan Koum will join Facebook's Board of Directors. "Facebook fosters an environment where independent-minded entrepreneurs can build companies, set their own direction and focus on growth while also benefiting from Facebook's expertise, resources and scale. This approach is working well with Instagram, and WhatsApp will operate in this manner," Facebook said. Facebook shares were trading lower by nearly 4% in after-hours trading to $65.65.

Stock quotes in this article: FB 

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Latest SAC trial begins with Martoma facing long odds

mathew martoma sac

Feds kicked off opening statements Friday in the insider trading trial of Mathew Martoma, formerly of the hedge fund firm SAC Capital.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) Mathew Martoma, the latest defendant in the government's ongoing insider trading crackdown, is betting he can beat some long odds.

Since August of 2009, federal prosecutors have filed insider trading charges against 87 people, and have maintained a perfect record so far. Of the cases that have concluded, 78 defendants have been convicted or pleaded guilty. None were acquitted.

Martoma's trial began Friday in Manhattan. He was formerly a portfolio manager at SAC Capital, the hedge fund firm run by billionaire investment mogul Steve Cohen that has become the government's primary target over the course of the crackdown.

Seven former SAC employees have already pleaded guilty or been convicted of insider trading charges. The firm itself also pleaded guilty to criminal insider trading charges last year, paying $1.8 billion in fines and agreeing to close its doors to outside investors.

Martoma, however, maintains his innocence, so spectators gathered in a packed courtroom Friday to hear opening statements in his case from the prosecution and defense.

Martoma is accused of selling and shorting shares of drug companies Elan and Wyeth after illegally obtaining information about confidential results of a failed Alzheimer's drug trial in 2008.

The feds allege that Martoma used his inside information to convince Cohen to buy $700 million worth of Elan and Wyeth stock, and then dump it and short it just days before the public announcement of the trial's results. The trades allegedly generated profits and avoided losses for a combined gain of $276 million.

Manhattan U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara has called the case "the most lucrative insider trading scheme ever charged."

"Steve Cohen had bought Elan and Wyeth largely on Mathew Martoma's recommendation," prosecutor Arlo Devlin-Brown told jurors Friday.

Devlin-Brown said Martoma fostered a professional friendship with Dr. Sidney Gilman, who was involved in the drug trials, in order to gain inside information. Martoma allegedly paid the Michigan-based neurologist $70,000 over a series of 40 meetings from 2006 to 2008.

Best Solar Stocks To Watch Right Now

Gilman is expected to be the prosecution's star witness. He settled civil insider trading charges from the SEC ba! ck in 2012, and will avoid prison time thanks to his cooperation with the government.

Martoma's lawyer, Richard Strassberg, argued that Gilman couldn't be trusted in light of this agreement, and will "remember things the way the prosecution wants him to remember them."

"Dr. Gilman has a memory that's faulty, and has changed his story again and again," Strassberg said of the Alzheimer's expert.

Strassberg also noted that the practice of consulting industry experts for insight into particular companies is common among investment professionals, saying both Martoma and Gilman had conducted dozens of similar meetings with others.

"When the prosecution talks about [getting an] edge, that's not something sinister," Strassberg said. "It's what anybody who's investing other people's money should be doing."

As for SAC's move to abruptly dump Elan and Wyeth stock, Strassberg said this was standard practice for the firm.

"This is a hedge fund -- they make money by taking big positions and selling big positions," he said.

If convicted, Martoma could get up to 20 years in prison for each of the two fraud charges he faces and up to five years for a conspiracy charge, though his actual sentence would probably be much lighter.

Martoma's trial follows last month's conviction of Michael Steinberg, who was also a portfolio manager at SAC, for shorting Dell (DELL, Fortune 500) and Nvidia (NVDA) stocks based on inside information. Steinberg is scheduled to be sentenced in April.

Cohen himself has not been charged criminally, though the Securities and Exchange Commission filed a civil suit against him last year accusing him of failing to properly supervise employees who engaged in insider trading, an allegation he has denied. To top of page

Monday, February 17, 2014

The Outlook for 2014

Print FriendlyMaster limited partnerships (MLPs) performed very well in 2013, and finished December on a strong note — up 4 percent during the final 2 weeks of the year. The Alerian MLP Index (AMZ) — a composite of the 50 most prominent energy MLPs — finished the year with a gain of 20.5 percent.

The AMZ spent most of the year ahead of the S&P 500 Index — which gained 30 percent in 2013 — but in the second half the S&P 500 pulled ahead. Of course AMZ components also yielded about 6 percent in 2013, versus 1.9 percent for the S&P 500.

MLP performance chart

2013 Performance of Alerian MLP Index versus the S&P 500 Index

While the average MLP investor was probably happy with 2013’s performance, there was of course a wide variation of performance in the MLP world. Among the conventional midstream and upstream MLPs, performance ranged from American Midstream Partners (NYSE: AMID) — the best performing midstream MLP with a gain of 98.5 percent in 2013 — down to the upstream MLP EV Energy Partners (Nasdaq: EVEP), which lost 40 percent for the year.

MLP performance chart

Top Oil Stocks To Invest In 2015

2013 Performance of American Midstream Partners versus EV Energy Partners

Among the unconventional MLPs the disparity between the top and bottom performers was even greater, with several financial services/holding companies near the top of the heap, and nitrogen fertilizer MLPs clogging the drain.

But 2013 is in the rear view mirror, and what you really want to know is where to position yourself for 2014. First, let’s review some terminology.

“Upstream” refers to the extraction of oil and gas. An upstream company can be predominantly an oil producer or a natural gas producer, but generally will produce both. Over the past few years it has generally been much more lucrative in the upstream business to be an oil producer. Among the natural gas producers, those that produce a lot of natural gas liquids (NGLs), which are condensed out of wet gas, have fared better than those that produce predominantly dry natural gas.

“Midstream” refers to the transportation of oil and gas. MLPs based on midstream assets comprise the largest category of MLPs, and are less volatile than upstream MLPs. A midstream MLP acts as a toll collector, charging for the use of its storage tanks, pipelines, and oil and gas gathering infrastructure.    

“Downstream” typically refers to the business of refining oil, but can also sometimes refer to the purification of natural gas. Because downstream businesses are sensitive to the price of both the crude oil and the finished products they have historically been more cyclical and less predictable than the upstream or midstream businesses.

As a result, most of the downstream MLPs (including their “cousins” the fertilizer MLPs) have chosen to make variable distributions. This is in contrast to the policy of most midstream MLPs, which tend to have stable and growing distributions over time. Most upstream MLPs also strive for consistent distribution growth, but during prolonged periods of weak oil and gas prices they may have difficulty maintaining the payouts despite extensive hedging.

Beyond the upstream, midstream, and downstream MLPs, there are a variety of MLPs in related businesses like natural gas compression, shipping, oilfield services, coal and wholesale fuel distribution. Then there are nonconventional MLPs in industries like financial services and even operators of cemeteries and amusement parks.

But most of our focus is on the more conventional MLPs. Here is how we see them faring in light of our expectations for oil and gas prices in 2014. We expect globally traded Brent crude to hold up fairly well over the next year, with odds favoring a yearly average somewhat below current levels of about $107 per barrel (bbl). Ever-growing demand in emerging markets should consume virtually all of the expected 1.2 million bbl/d non-OPEC global supply increase for 2014 (most of which is expected to come from the US).

US oil is expected to become increasingly plentiful next year, as shale plays in the Eagle Ford and the Bakken ramp up production alongside older basins such as the Permian in Texas. But the International Energy Agency projects that a recovering US economy stimulate fuel demand in 2014.

Nevertheless, it seems likely that the expansion of domestic crude oil production will put downward pressure on US oil price benchmarks like West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which has already weakened in recent weeks. Many in the oil industry have suggested changing the law to allow US oil producers to export the light, sweet crude they are producing, since so many US refineries are now designed for heavier, sour crudes. Don’t expect legislation allowing this in 2014.

A collapse in the price of US crude oil is unlikely, as marginal production would begin to shut in if prices fell below $85/bbl for long. Thus the upstream MLPs will likely do OK in 2014. I would be an aggressive buyer of select upstream MLPs if the price of WTI touches $80 this year, because I don’t believe that level to be sustainable. With possible weakness in the WTI price, I expect most upstream MLPs will be happy to maintain their distribution levels.

Upstream MLPs that are more gas-focused are perhaps a compelling long-term investment. Natural gas prices have recovered strongly over the past year, and while I don’t expect a major move outside of seasonal norms in 2014, over the next three to five years there are a lot of factors that argue for higher gas prices. Thus, an out-of-favor natural gas producer could prove to be a profitable addition to your MLP portfolio in 2014.

Midstream will continue to be the safest play in the MLP sector. Even if oil prices surprise us and move sharply to the downside, the midstream MLPs will be the least affected. The nature of most of their contracts protects them from commodity exposure, and with US oil production expected to expand once more in 2014, the midstream MLPs should benefit from transporting that crude oil.  

The refining MLPs are a special case. These are more suitable for traders as opposed to long-term investors. You want to accumulate these when refining margins have dropped, which can be approximated by the size of the Brent-WTI price differential (because finished products are more influenced by Brent prices). If this differential is falling — particularly if it spends a quarter below $10/bbl as it did in Q3 2013 — this can present a buying opportunity for bargain hunters and short-term traders

When the posted yields for these MLPs are in the 15-to-20+ percent range, I would exercise extreme caution, because huge quarters that boost the variable distribution are often followed by quarters that require a deep distribution cut. This is why we warned investors in Q3 of last year that results would be poor and that refining MLPs would likely correct when earnings were released, but that prices would bounce back in Q4 (true on both counts).

There are a few US coal MLPs, many of which have seen their market caps decimated in the past 2 ½ years. Most MLP investors should avoid this sector, as more restrictive EPA regulations and competition from natural gas and renewables will continue to put pressure on coal producers. For bargain hunters who are prepared for the possibility of further downside, there are one or two that have strong balance sheets. But don’t go bargain hunting just on the basis of price. Remember that the worst-performing of all MLPs in 2013 was coal producer Oxford Resource Partners (NYSE: OXF) — down 73 percent for the year and illustrative of the coal industry’s struggles.

Bargain hunters and contrarian investors might want to watch the fertilizer MLP space. The sector was in the cellar in 2013 — accounting for three of the five worst performances among all MLPs. Unit prices are depressed, but the fertilizer business, like the refining business, is cyclical. Fertilizer MLPs will at some point run back up, just as they dropped in 2013.

Risk factors for the sector are sharply higher natural gas prices that cut into margins, and lower demand — particularly in light of the EPA’s indication that it will lower ethanol mandates (which would lower corn demand, and hence fertilizer demand). But once it becomes clear that conditions are improving, units could easily gain 30 to 50 percent relatively quickly.  

(Follow Robert Rapier on Twitter, LinkedIn, or Facebook.)



Saturday, February 8, 2014

United Technologies Corporation (NYSE:UTX): How Pension Shift Will Drive EPS?

Pensions reversing course in 2014 will drive a cash/EPS benefit ahead for commercial aerospace sector. The pension shift will be most impactful to commercial names such as United Technologies Corporation (NYSE:UTX), Textron Inc. (NYSE:TXT), Triumph Group Inc (NYSE:TGI), and The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA).

2014 pension expense and funding should be trending in the right direction, assuming discount rates up 80 basis points (bps) since December 31, 2012 and plan returns will likely be well above the average 8 percent return on plan assets.

In most cases, the pension swing in commercial companies is not as significant as what we're seeing with the defense companies, but it will be a pleasant positive, according to Deutsche Bank analyst Myles Walton.

[Related -The Boeing Company (BA): Why You Should Look At Boeing's Defense Business?]

Pension expense associated with defense contracting work is an allowable expense not dissimilar to other elements of a US defense company's cost structure. However, unlike most other cost elements, there is a material difference in the calculation of what pension expense is under government contracting regulations and both the funding requirements under the Pension Protection Act and the recognition of expense in GAAP.

In 2014, the discount rate used by the government to measure pension obligations (and as an input into allowable cost) will start to converge with the discount rate used for required funding.

Walton believes investors will pay for cash benefits from the turn in pension but will be less inclined to put a multiple on non-cash pension swings (unless required funding correspondingly falls).

[Related -Jobs Growth Tepid At Best]

However, the good news for defense contractors is that the large swing in pension (2014-2017) will be driven by higher cash recoupment by the Department of Defense (DoD) contractors. In 2014, the DoD starts to fold market driven-discount rates into their modeling of pension obligations (25 percent in 2014, 50 percent in 2015, 75 percent in 2016 and 100 percent in 2017), which will drive up the government pension reimbursement by about 60 percent.

There have been some early grumblings at the DoD on the trajectory of pension expense (Jan 2013 GAO report and fiscal year 2014 National Defense Authorization Bill, Section 842). However, any changes would likely not be imparted until at least 18-24 months from now with a potential for implementation right around the time when CAS expense may be peaking.

Commercial aerospace companies on average trade at 17 times next twelve month EPS, which is 3 points higher than the 14 times the group traded at the start of 2012 and 2013. But, relative to the S&P 500, commercial aero stocks currently trade at just a 15 percent premium, versus 12 percent premium at the start of 2013 and a 20 percent premium at the beginning of 2012.

Walton says the multiple expansion relative to the overall market has not been that significant. In addition, the estimated 17 percent average earnings growth for commercial aerospace companies (followed by 13 percent average EPS growth in 2015), gives comfort that there's more equity value creation opportunity left in the group.

Thursday, February 6, 2014

AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T): T-Mobile-Style Plans Should Drive Margins

AT&T Inc.'s (NYSE:T) latest Mobile Share Value plans, which helps users reduce their monthly fees when paying for their own devices, should drive more smartphone leasing and margins.

AT&T introduced a no contract discount plan for unsubsidized devices bought on its Next device leasing plan for $25 a month plus device payment. The plan for subsidized devices bought on a two-year contract was standardized regardless of data bucket at $40 a month.

The plan first and foremost is intended to drive greater adoption of smartphone leasing plans as the industry slowly reduces the role of subsidies, which is positive for long-term industry margins.

[Related -Sprint Corporation (S): Sprinting To $10?]

BMO Capital Markets analyst Kevin Manning believes the biggest impact should be to T-Mobile, which has been winning low-end subscribers from AT&T. Meanwhile, Verizon Communications (NYSE:VZ) may not respond in the near term, but it could introduce similar discounted leasing plans in the future.

AT&T has now made their low-end plans more competitive versus T-Mobile's (NYSE:TMUS) "un-carrier" campaign that is enticing customers with no-contract plans, phone financing and lower-cost international roaming rates. T-Mobile added about 650,000 monthly customers in the third quarter, following the loss of more than 2 million subscribers last year.

Hot Blue Chip Stocks To Own For 2014

[Related -Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL): What Does A Potential China Mobile Deal Means For Apple?]

For contract subscribers, AT&T's new smartphone plans have lower prices for low usage subscribers and higher prices for higher usage subscribers. Relative to existing plans, the new 300 MB plan is $10 less per device, and the 2 GB plan is $5 less. The 4GB plan is unchanged.

The 6GB plan is $5 less for 1 device, unchanged for two devices and $5 more for each additional one. The 10GB plan i! s $10 less for one device, unchanged for two devices and $10 more for each additional device. A new 8GB was also introduced. In addition, feature phone costs drop from $30 to $20.

Relative to Verizon, changes are at the low end with AT&T's 300 MB bucket now $20 less than Verizon's 500 MB bucket, previously it was $10 less. Manning noted that the 1GB and 2GB buckets are now $5 less than Verizon's, which he don't think is material.

Under the latest AT&T plan, users who either own a device or pay for one in installments can start at $45 a month for 300 MB of data, along with unlimited text and talk. AT&T's current price for a similar plan is $70, whether or not the customer already has a phone. Most customers will save at least $15 a month under the new AT&T plans.

Customers can receive these monthly savings when they get a new smartphone for no down payment with AT&T Next; bring their own smartphone; purchase a smartphone at full retail price, or when their smartphone is no longer under contract, and they switch to the new plans.

All Mobile Share Value plan customers will benefit from shared data plus unlimited talk and text on their phones. Consumers will have the ability to connect up to 10 devices, including tablets and other wireless devices while business customers will be able to connect up to 10, 15, 20 or 25 devices, depending on the plan.

Qualifying smartphones can be added to any Mobile Share Value plan for $25 more a month per phone; tablets can be added for $10 more per device.

Customers with basic and messaging phones can enjoy a low monthly rate of $40 for unlimited talk, text and 300MB of data. For $20 more a month per phone, additional basic and messaging lines can be added to any Mobile Share Value plan. In addition to the 300MB option, AT&T Mobile Share Value plans offer data options ranging from 1GB up to 50 GB, all with unlimited talk and text.

The new plan will make monthly smartphone payments even lower than the existi! ng AT&! ;T Next option, by spreading payments over 26 months and giving eligible customers a way to get a new smartphone after 18 monthly payments for no down payment, no upgrade fee, no activation fee and no financing fee.

To a lesser extent, the plans are intended to drive greater adoption of share plans. Though earnings impact is tough to assess at this time, the lease plans are expected to increase equipment revenue and decrease ARPU/service revenue. Overall, the Next leasing plans are margin accretive.

Wednesday, February 5, 2014

2 Big Tech Stocks Spiking on Big Volume

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Professional traders running mutual funds and hedge funds don't just look at a stock's price moves; they also track big changes in volume activity. Often when above-average volume moves into an equity, it precedes a large spike in volatility.

>>4 Big Stocks on Traders' Radars

Major moves in volume can signal unusual activity, such as insider buying or selling -- or buying or selling by "superinvestors."

Unusual volume can also be a major signal that hedge funds and momentum traders are piling into a stock ahead of a catalyst. These types of traders like to get in well before a large spike, so it's always a smart move to monitor unusual volume. That said, remember to combine trend and price action with unusual volume. Put them all together to help you decipher the next big trend for any stock.

>>5 Hated Earnings Stocks You Should Love

With that in mind, let's take a look at several stocks rising on unusual volume recently.

AOL

AOL (AOL) offers a suite of online content, products and services to consumers, advertisers, publishers and subscribers worldwide. This stock closed up 1.7% to $46.87 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 3.69 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 1.42 million

Volume % Change: 148%

>>5 Stocks Ready to Break Out

From a technical perspective, AOL spiked notably higher here right off its 50-day moving average of $45.73 with above-average volume. This stock has been downtrending over the last few weeks, with shares moving lower from its high of $53.28 to its recent low of $45.52. During that move, shares of AOL have been consistently making lower highs and lower lows, which is bearish technical price action. That said, shares of AOL might be setting up to reverse that downtrend and enter a new uptrend.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in AOL as long as it's trending above that recent low of $45.52 and then once it sustains a move or close above Monday's high of $49.91 with volume that's near or above 1.42 million shares. If we get that move soon, then AOL will set up to re-test or possibly take out its 52-week high at $53.28. Any high-volume move above that level will then give AOL a chance to tag $55 to $60.

Apple

Apple (AAPL) designs, manufactures and markets mobile communication and media devices, personal computers and portable digital music players worldwide. This stock closed up 0.19% to $501.53 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 14.30 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 12.12 million

Volume % Change: 50%

>>Wall Street Got Apple Wrong -- Again

From a technical perspective, AAPL trended modestly higher here with above-average volume. This stock recently gapped down sharply from over $550 to under $510 with heavy downside volume. Following that move, shares of AAPL have started to rebound off its recent low of $493.55. That rebound is quickly pushing shares of AAPL within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if AAPL manages to take out Monday's high of $507.73 to its gap-down-day high of $515 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in AAPL as long as it's trending above Monday's low of $500.60 or above some more near-term support at $493.55 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 12.12 million shares. If that breakout hits soon, then AAPL will set up to re-fill some of its previous gap-down-day zone that started just above $550.

To see more stocks rising on unusual volume, check out the Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.


RELATED LINKS:



>>3 Huge Stocks to Trade (or Not)



>>Where's the S&P Headed From Here? Higher!



>>5 Big Trades to Profit During the Fed's QE Pay Cut

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.


Monday, February 3, 2014

Hot Safest Stocks For 2014

Getty Images Conventional wisdom is often a good thing, or at least harmless. For instance, even if chicken soup doesn't help your cold -- and research shows it probably does help -- it won't hurt you. Plus, you'll help keep someone employed in the soup industry. But there are plenty of times when conventional wisdom isn't just wrong -- it can cost you money. So the next time you're about to make a big financial decision, keep in mind that rarely is anything black and white when it comes to the green stuff. Here are five money "rules" that are largely wrong. Carrying a credit card balance will help your credit score. Not at all. If you are carrying a balance you can't pay off, it will help to keep the balance as low as possible because credit bureaus don't like to see a high debt-to-income ratio. In other words, they want to see that you aren't maxed out to the limit every month. So intentionally carrying a balance on your card won't put your credit in better standing or save you money; paying interest only benefits the credit card companies. Having a zero balance every month on your credit card is fine, especially if you're making regular or occasional purchases and paying them off monthly. Credit bureaus like to see that people are using credit cards responsibly. That's why never using a credit card that has a zero balance won't appreciably help your credit score, either. Pay off credit card debt before saving for retirement. Ultimately, it comes down to how much debt you're talking about, and what kind. "One myth that young professionals -- actually, many professionals -- initially question is whether they should pay off consumer debt, like credit cards and student loans, before fully investing in their company's 401(k) plan," says John Oxford, director of external affairs at Renasant, a financial services company headquartered in Tupelo, Miss. What's so wrong with paying off the massive credit card debt you accumulated in your early 20s before sinking money into a 401(k) plan? Oxford says if your company offers a 401(k) contribution match, and you instead shovel money into debt, you'll pass up on what amounts to free money that could have gone toward your retirement. You're also losing out on the potential interest growth, he says. So, yes, save for retirement at the same time, even if that means it will take longer to pay off your debt. Stocks make you rich -- and bonds keep you rich. A good rule of thumb, but this is another gray area. "The bond bull market for the past 30 years is coming to an end," says Jon Ulin, a managing principal at Ulin & Co. Wealth Management, a branch of LPL Financial in Boca Raton, Fla. "Interest rates will begin to rise when the Fed starts to taper the monetary stimulus program. Bonds tend to fall in value when interest rates rise. As [when] there is a greater degree of price volatility for longer bond maturities, investors should move more into short-duration bond investments." Benjamin Sullivan, a certified financial planner with Palisades Hudson Financial Group in Scarsdale, N.Y., echoes that thought. He says it's a myth that retirees should be fully invested in bonds. "Even retirees may have a relatively long time horizon for a portion of their money," he says. "They need the superior growth that stocks can provide to retain purchasing power over their life." Home additions increase your home sale value. Usually they don't, says Patrick Roberts, a certified financial planner and CEO of PKR Investments in St. Louis. If you add on a room or an amenity like a swimming pool for the sole purpose of adding value to your home, he says, you're likely to hurt your pocketbook. That's because even if your addition does add value to the house, you've likely taken on more debt in the process, so you may lose money in the long run. Now, if your house needs a fresh coat of paint, feel free to slather it on. You will probably sell it faster and maybe for a bit more. But when it comes to high-priced add-ons and features, proceed cautiously if your only goal is to add value to your home. Your money is safest in the bank. Not exactly. Money market accounts, savings bonds, your 401(k), a 529 plan and index funds may all be better alternatives (obviously, do your research or talk to your financial adviser). True, if your money is in the bank, it's safe because it isn't going anywhere. Banks' checking and savings accounts and certificates of deposit are insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation up to $250,000. But if you have a lot of cash sitting in a savings account, you're technically losing money with interest rates so low these days, Sullivan says. "You might have the comfort of seeing a stable account balance, but you are guaranteeing that your buying power will decrease due to inflation," he says. Currently, inflation is at about 1 percent, which is pretty low. Unfortunately, the average savings account yields about 0.06 percent, so you're still losing a bit of money. But a couple of years ago, when inflation was about 3 percent, the loss was more pronounced: People were losing about 3 percent of their income's worth because their savings yields weren't keeping up with inflation, Sullivan says.

Hot Safest Stocks For 2014: Under Armour Inc.(UA)

Under Armour, Inc. develops, markets, and distributes performance apparel, footwear, and accessories for men, women, and youth primarily in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It offers products made from moisture-wicking synthetic fabrics designed to regulate body temperature and enhance performance regardless of weather conditions. The company provides its products in three fit types: compression (tight fitting), fitted (athletic cut), and loose (relaxed) extending across the sporting goods, outdoor, and active lifestyle markets. Its footwear offerings comprise football, baseball, lacrosse, softball, and soccer cleats; slides; performance training footwear; and running footwear. The company also provides baseball batting, football, golf, and running gloves, as well as licenses bags, socks, headwear, custom-molded mouth guards, and eyewear that are designed to be used and worn before, during, and after competition. Under Armour sells its products through retai l stores, as well as directly to consumers through its own retail outlets and specialty stores, Website, and catalogs. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Dan Caplinger]

    On Friday, Under Armour (NYSE: UA  ) will release its latest quarterly results. The key to making smart investment decisions on stocks reporting earnings is to anticipate how they'll do before they announce results, leaving you fully prepared to respond quickly to whatever inevitable surprises arise. That way, you'll be less likely to make an uninformed knee-jerk reaction to news that turns out to be exactly the wrong move.

  • [By Chris Hill]

    In this installment of Investor Beat, Motley Fool analysts Matt Koppenheffer and Jason Moser explain why they're keeping a close watch on shares of DR Horton (NYSE: DHI  ) and Under Armour (NYSE: UA  ) .

  • [By Andrew Marder]

    Can VF scale the peak?
    The bar is high, and VF is now committed to hitting its impressive goal. Competitors are certainly not going to back down, and VF is going to be under pressure for the next five years. On its main front, expect VF to see a siege from rival brand Columbia Sportswear (NASDAQ: COLM  ) and sporting champion Under Armour (NYSE: UA  ) .

  • [By Steve Symington]

    I've made no secret of my fondness for apparel specialist�Under Armour (NYSE: UA  ) over the past few years.

    In fact, since I opened an outperform�CAPScall�on the stock at a split-adjusted $14.76 per share in January 2010, I've joyously watched it outperform the S&P 500 by more than 240% as of this writing.

Hot Safest Stocks For 2014: Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras(PBR)

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. primarily engages in oil and natural gas exploration and production, refining, trade, and transportation businesses. The company?s Exploration and Production segment involves in the exploration, production, development, and production of oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas in Brazil. This segment supplies its products to the refineries in Brazil, as well as sells surplus petroleum and byproducts in domestic and foreign markets. Its Supply segment engages in the refining, logistics, transportation, and trade of oil and oil products; export of ethanol; and extraction and processing of schist, as well as holds interests in companies of the petrochemical sector in Brazil. The Gas and Energy segment involves in the transportation and trade of natural gas produced in or imported into Brazil; transportation and trade of LNG; and generation and trade of electric power. In addition, the segment has interests in natural gas transportation and d istribution companies; and thermoelectric power stations in Brazil, as well engages in fertilizer business. The Distribution segment distributes oil products, ethanol, and compressed natural gas in Brazil. The International segment involves in the exploration and production of oil and gas, as well as in supplying, gas and energy, and distribution operations in the Americas, Africa, Europe, and Asia. Further, the company involves in biofuel production business. Petroleo Brasileiro was founded in 1953 and is based in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Ben Levisohn]

    The major challenge comes from Brazil, where offshore drilling activity fell in 2013 and is expected to decline further in 2014. Halliburton won a large multi-year drilling services contract from�Petrobras (PBR) before offshore activity began to slow. After putting in place the people and infrastructure to execute the contract, [Halliburton] has been very disappointed with the volume of drilling services work that Petrobras� has needed under the terms of the contract…

  • [By David Smith]

    Think about it: 10 years ago the Gulf of Mexico was thought to be headed for oblivion, only to be revived mightily by technology that opened up the deepwater. Activity in Brazil was minimal, and now Diamond Offshore has a baker's dozen rigs working there, most in the deepwater and ultra-deepwater for Petrobras (NYSE: PBR  ) .

  • [By Stephan Dube]

    Petrobras SA (NYSE: PBR  ) �currently produces above 300,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, 43% in the Santos basin and 57% in the Campos basin. Petrobras achieved this level of production with only 17 wells in pre-salt basins located in offshore Brazil. Furthermore, about 96% of its total production is achieved in Brazil, and the company currently has 69 floating rigs for well construction and maintenance in the country.

    Petrobras holds world-class assets with tremendous potential that will boost its operating income in the coming years. From January 2012 to February 2013, a hefty 53 discoveries were made of which 25 were offshore, including 15 in pre-salt basins. According to the producer, production of more than one million barrels per day should be reached by 2017, and over 2.1 Mmbbls/d could be reached by 2020 for its pre-salt assets.

  • [By Jim Jubak]

    The auction news isn't good for investors in Brazil's Petrobras (PBR), but it could well be a boon for China and Chinese oil companies such as PetroChina (PTR) and CNOOC (CEO).

10 Best Undervalued Stocks To Own For 2015: Goldman Sachs Group Inc.(The)

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides investment banking, securities, and investment management services to corporations, financial institutions, governments, and high-net-worth individuals worldwide. Its Investment Banking segment offers financial advisory, including advisory assignments with respect to mergers and acquisitions, divestitures, corporate defense, risk management, restructurings, and spin-offs; and underwriting securities, loans and other financial instruments, and derivative transactions. The company?s Institutional Client Services segment provides client execution activities, such as fixed income, currency, and commodities client execution related to making markets in interest rate products, credit products, mortgages, currencies, and commodities; and equities related to making markets in equity products, as well as commissions and fees from executing and clearing institutional client transactions on stock, options, and fu tures exchanges. This segment also engages in the securities services business providing financing, securities lending, and other prime brokerage services to institutional clients, including hedge funds, mutual funds, pension funds, and foundations. Its Investing and Lending segment invests in debt securities, loans, public and private equity securities, real estate, consolidated investment entities, and power generation facilities. This segment also involves in the origination of loans to provide financing to clients. The company?s Investment Management segment provides investment management services and investment products to institutional and individual clients. This segment also offers wealth advisory services, including portfolio management and financial counseling, and brokerage and other transaction services to high-net-worth individuals and families. In addition, it provides global investment research services. The company was founded in 1869 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Hot Safest Stocks For 2014: Fluor Corporation(FLR)

Fluor Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides engineering, procurement, construction, maintenance, and project management services worldwide. Its Oil & Gas segment offers design, engineering, procurement, construction, and project management services to upstream oil and gas production, downstream refining, chemicals, and petrochemicals industries. This segment also provides consulting services comprising feasibility studies, process assessment, and project finance structuring and studies. The company?s Industrial & Infrastructure segment offers design, engineering, procurement, and construction services to the transportation, wind power, mining and metals, life sciences, manufacturing, commercial and institutional, telecommunications, microelectronics, and healthcare sectors. Its Government segment provides engineering, construction, logistics support, contingency response, management, and operations services to the United States government focusing on the Departme nt of Energy, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Department of Defense. The company?s Global Services segment offers operations and maintenance, small capital project engineering and execution, site equipment and tool services, industrial fleet services, plant turnaround services, temporary staffing services, and supply chain solutions. Its Power segment provides engineering, procurement, construction, program management, start-up and commissioning, and operations and maintenance services to the gas fueled, solid fueled, plant betterment, renewables, nuclear, and power services markets. The company also offers unionized management and construction services in the United States and Canada. Fluor Corporation was founded in 1912 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Louis Navellier]

    If we look at the sector using Portfolio Grader, we see that many of the big names in the group like Flour (FLR), Granite Construction (GVA) and KBR incorporated (KBR) are rated ��ell.��The anticipated spending for both government and private industry simply hasn�� materialized, and the companies are not seeing revenue or profit growth.

  • [By Rich Duprey]

    South America has become an unsettled region to mine in. Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM  ) had its Peruvian Conga project brought to a short stop over environmental concerns, while Vale (NYSE: VALE  ) recently abandoned an Argentinean project because of the country's policies.�Costs for Pascua-Lama have ballooned over the past decade and now stand at about $8.5 billion, putting it at risk of becoming an albatross around the miner's neck even before the court decision. Barrick even resorted to bringing in engineering specialist Fluor (NYSE: FLR  ) to expand the scope of its project management before the court order.

  • [By Louis Navellier]

    Fluor Corporation (FLR) is one of the world�� leading heavy construction and engineering firms. I don’t want to imply that this is a bad company because it is actually a very good one. However, Fluor has divisions including Oil & Gas, Industrial Infrastructure, Government, Global Services and Power. Virtually all of them are seeing limited spending as a result of the global slowdown and reduced government spending around the world. The stock is up more than 23% this year, but earnings are actually down on flat revenues. Analysts have been lowering their estimates for the rest of this year as well as 2014, and the stock is currently rated as a by Portfolio Grader. When the economy recovers, I expect will see this company’s fundamentals improve substantially … but until that happens investors should avoid the stock.

Sunday, February 2, 2014

Australia Poised to Scrap Carbon and Mining Taxes

Print Friendly

In its pitch to the Australian electorate during the recent election cycle, the Liberal-National Coalition vowed to scrap the country’s carbon tax as well as the Minerals Resource Rent Tax (MRRT), the latter of which is levied on the “super profits” of large mining companies. Indeed, back when newly elected Prime Minister Tony Abbott was a leader of the opposition, he made a rhetorical “pledge in blood” to do away with the carbon tax, which he had also characterized as “an octopus embracing the whole of [the] economy.”

Though planning and politicking for both taxes had been underway for a few years prior to their enactment, the timing for when they finally came into effect was exquisite. Both taxes became effective at the beginning of July 2012, roughly coinciding with the peak of Australia’s resource boom and, therefore, a fitting testament to the fact that politicians on all sides take wealth creation largely for granted.

Hot Medical Companies To Own For 2014

But a slackening economy has caused some politicians to shift their focus toward removing barriers to growth. To that end, the newly ascendant Liberal-Nationals, who prevailed at the polls in Australia’s federal elections back in September, have wasted little time in working toward the repeal of both taxes.

Late last week, the lower house of Parliament voted to repeal both taxes, and now the bills head to the Senate. Although the Coalition should eventually hold the balance of power there, assuming they successfully woo the independents whose politics are aligned with theirs, the newly elected Senators won’t actually take their seats until next July. In the interim, Labor still controls the Senate thanks to its partnership with the Greens. As such, both bills are certain to be defeated in the Senate next month.

While it may seem pointless for the Coalition to put such bills to a vote before they control both houses of Parliament, the Liberal-Nationals could pursue a strategy that, though politically risky, could bring about the repeal of both taxes earlier than next summer.

After the Senate presumably rejects the legislation during this round, the House of Representatives could re-introduce both bills early next year. If the lower chamber passes them once more and the Senate votes against them again, then that may satisfy the conditions for what’s known as a “double dissolution,” a procedure by which the Australian Constitution resolves legislative impasses between the two bodies. If a double dissolution is triggered, the government can dissolve both houses of Parliament and call for new elections.

But it’s extremely rare for the government to follow through on double dissolutions, even when triggered. And it seems unlikely that the Coalition would pursue such an end given that it would only advance the timetable on repeal by a few months, while an already fatigued public has endured what was, by Australian standards, an unusually long election cycle this year.

Interestingly, though the Coalition hopes to repeal the carbon tax, it intends to replace that regime with an alternative approach to achieving Australia’s goal to reduce emissions to 5 percent below levels that prevailed in 2000 by 2020. The new government’s so-called “direct action” plan would pay companies to curb emissions via reverse auctions financed by an AUD1.55 billion Emissions Reduction Fund. Thus far, this plan has had a lukewarm reception among the public, as well as some industry groups and policymakers, so it remains to be seen whether it actually gets implemented.

But at the very least, with repeal of both taxes likely by next summer at the very latest, Australia’s resource sector will face two fewer challenges at a time when it could definitely use the help. And while that alone won’t be a game changer for our investments, it should prove helpful at the margins.